The theme of my war is based on one simple principle: do not expect Russia to do anything it has never proved. One day, Russia could gather, but during the three months of the war, bets have been made against Russia always paid off.
We may soon be able to add Popasn to this list of Russia’s failures. This breakthrough on the Eastern Front was supposed to undermine Ukraine’s defense in the area, leading to the siege of Lysichansk and Severodonetsk. Almost two weeks later, Russia has not been able to stretch more than 15 kilometers from the city. Here’s the progress of the last eight days:
Ukraine withdrew its forces south of Popasna to avoid siege, making the red piece look good to Russia. But that’s all. It has been several days since Russia has even tried to move. The General Staff of Ukraine says that “in the direction of Bahmut, in Russian [sic] the occupiers regroup for further offensive. It was the same language used when Russia was stuck around Kiev and the same language when Russia was stuck around Isaiah. “Regrouping for further offensive.”
Of course, Russia can finally collect its shit and finally prove that I am wrong, but I simply do not understand how Russia is passing this 15 km circle around Popasn. Remember, the further they move, the longer the supply lines become and the less protection these avant-garde forces receive from its artillery. Russian howitzer range? 16 kilometers. It is no coincidence that the Russian offensive has stopped within its artillery radius. Russian troops can only move forward when the artillery balances the defense. And if this artillery is moved closer to the front line, it will make it easier for Ukraine longer– Range artillery and drones to locate and destroy them. That’s why they get stuck.
So let’s get back to this great Reddit meme:
The mute was published in the early days of May, when Russia really thought it could push from Izjum’s landmark to the Horlivka region with one massive sweep of hundreds of kilometers. The joke was that “by June, their goals will fall even further.” The thing is, it’s still May, and these June arrows are out of date. Russia has failed to cross the Donetsk River near Lima and the northern branch of Lysichansk, and the southern branch near Popasna has died in the water. What’s left then?
Russia’s mighty army, which is the second best in their own estimation, failed to conquer Kiev, failed to conquer Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov, despite it. on their borders. They failed to widely encircle the entire Donbass region, the smaller siege of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and the smallest siege of Lisičanka and Severodonetsk. There is still a direct attack on Severodonetsk against the expanded and reinforced Ukrainian garrison. In recent days, I have questioned the wisdom of defending the city here, here and here. But Ukraine’s General Staff may agree with my philosophy: do not expect Russia to do anything it has never been able to do. So far, Russia has captured only two major cities, Kherson through bribes and treason, and Mariupol after 2.5 months of siege, which has been separated from any supply. There is a rational reason to believe that Russia will fight in Severodonetsk.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian counterattack on the southern front of Kherson is picking up steam. The General Staff said Russian troops had withdrawn from Nikolaev after suffering “significant losses”. This city is located south of Krivyi Rih near the administrative border of Kherson (upper right arrow in this map below).
The outlines of the administrative boundaries of the Kherson Oblast can be seen on the map. I spent several months mocking the attempt to reach Krivijhri, who seemed to have insufficient resources, but it is now clear that Russia was only interested in demanding full control of Kherson’s borders in order to annex it to Russia.
The middle arrow is to attack around Davidivs Brida, where Ukraine seems to have moved about 9 kilometers south. This medium branch threatens the supply lines of those Russian troops in the north of the Kherson region, forcing them to retreat even further.
Finally, in Snihurivka is a battle, the upper left lower arrow. Snihurivka was in Ukrainian hands for a short time after the first counterattack in the war on March 17. You may recall, Russia tried to get to Odessa, but Mykola was an impenetrable fortress, so Russian forces moved up the Southern Bug River. trying to get around it.
A logical thinker might think, “If Russia couldn’t occupy Mykola, 500,000 people, what made them think they could occupy Odessa, a city of 1 million, but with a few extra hundred kilometers of supply lines?” It turns out Russia could not even miss the town of Voznesensk, the population 34,000where territorial defense forces and peasants crushed Russia’s elite airborne forces.
After Voznesensk, Ukrainian forces pushed Russia by 120 kilometers (75 miles), proving for the first time that Ukraine can repeat lost territory. Ukrainian forces reached Posad-Pokrovsikote and Snihurivka until convincing Russian artillery stopped moving. Soon after, Russia regained Snihurivka to secure Kherson’s administrative borders. In March, Ukraine simply did not have the artillery resources it has today and was therefore unable to take advantage of them.
The area in the region is flat and open, with little coverage. This video shows what a typical collision looks like when Ukrainian artillery destroys a Russian vehicle while trying to run a glove.
The two hundred Americans donated the M113, which is currently on board a ship en route from the United States, will prove very valuable moving forward among these artillery dams. In fact, the brand new Ukrainian tank brigade is probably part of this offensive, boasting 70 Dutch M113 variants (along with 100 Polish-donated T-72s). No armored vehicle will survive a direct artillery impact, but they are rare without controlled artillery shells (which Russia does not have). The key is to protect yourself from the flying shrapnel that these vehicles do.
The situation in Snihurivka is unclear, with some Ukrainian social media sources claiming it has been re-released, while Russian sources only acknowledge the ongoing struggle. I mean the last one until we get official confirmation or photographic evidence to the contrary.
If Ukraine is able to break through these lines of defense, it will be a 50 – kilometer sprint to Berislav and Kozatske, just across the river from Nova Kakhovka, which is the main source of water for the entire Crimean peninsula. Kozatske is reportedly the site of one of the Nazi “filtration camps” for about 4,000 men from Mariupol. This pocket is of great value to Ukraine, both politically and strategically.
I wish you all a thoughtful day of remembrance.
People had interpreted Baiden’s statement as “no MLRS for Ukraine”. It seemed clear that he was thinking of any ATACMS missiles that could be launched from MLRS / HIMARS launchers with a range of almost 200 miles. The United States has already given Ukraine weapons that can reach Russia. The two countries border each other. Hand grenades can reach Russia.
I was wrong that Russia does not have precisely controlled artillery shells:
Again, the difficulty for everyone to move forward in such open terrain with so little coverage.
The first video from the newly released David Brod. These are not variants of the Dutch M113, so this is not the new armored brigade of Ukraine, at least not in this part of the Kherson counterattack.
Great thread. There seem to have been two generations of M270s since I worked with them from 1989-1992. It is hoped that they have understood the maintenance problems since then. Because, as this thread shows, their range is quite amazing.
Cool video.
In most armies, fire missions are based on units. So if the 1st Artillery Regiment has a drone or an observer, it sends the coordinates to its weapons. Ukraine has come up with a much more ingenious solution – an Uber-like app that prints coordinates, and the app identifies the weapons that are best placed to carry out a fire mission. So if the drone of the 1st FA regiment notices the target, the 3rd FA regiment might be better placed on a fire mission and act accordingly.
South of Izyum:
Who knows if the claims made on Twitter are true. But I added it to get a view of the terrain affected by the battle. The amount of explosive tonnage dropped in these fields is incomprehensible. Farmers will harvest shrapnel for generations.
By the way, this is Dovhenke, whom we recently read about, a Russian volunteer who wrote a lot about his terrible experience trying to occupy this city.