All 50 states have finalized their congressional maps to use for elections this November, a major checkpoint in a decade-long process of redrawing the lines for political representation.
On Tuesday, New Hampshire became the last state to fully implement its maps, and while Florida, Texas, Alabama and some other states are still fighting a legal battle over partisan and racial germination, the maps they created will remain in place for this year. Mid-term elections.
Here’s what the map tells us about what to expect in the 2022 midterm elections:
The Democrats built some ground
Compared to the map used in the 2020 U.S. House election, Democrats are expected to win ten seats supporting their party by at least 5 points, according to CBS News analysis of election data from Dave’s redistricting app.
In all, 181 seats are in favor of Democrats, 173 are in favor of Republicans and 81 are considered competitive (within 5 points for both parties), according to CBS News.
This is the result of the best maps the party has seen in the last three decades.
Although the Democrats had the power to regain fewer seats than the Republicans (75 out of 187 seats), they were still able to aggressively gain some ground in states like Oregon and Illinois, where they control the legislature. Legal victories in the Supreme Court of North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and in independent commissions in California and Michigan, also helped them gain ground.
Reportionment, the process of determining Which state gains or loses? Congressional districts based on their census data also lost more democratic states (New York, Illinois, California) than Republican states (West Virginia, Ohio).
Kelly Ward Burton, chairman of the National Democratic Redistribution Committee, said the party had a clear advantage over the map, which could last for decades. She said their numbers show 215 districts on the new map where Biden won more than 52% of the vote compared to 196. Where he had less than 48% seats.
But when a heavy democratic gerrymander Thrown in New York Republicans in Florida at the same time Successfully a gerrymander map Aiming to give them four more seats in Congress, Democrats saw their edge redistribution narrow.
“At DCCC, I understand how difficult it is [New York] The map can be for the officials of 2022 and the work to be done in 2022. But when you step out and look at the map in the full picture of the decade, I think that map will be good for the Democrats, “Burton said.
“The story of redistribution is different from the story of 2022. Because the talk of redistribution is setting the schedule for decades. That map is a map of ’22’, a map of ’24 and 26, ‘she added.”
And any gains Democrats have made may not be so obvious, especially if Republicans take the House by a wide margin.
“From Start, Republicans did not rely on redistribution to win a majority. We’ve said from the beginning that we need great candidates, a winning message and enough resources to make history and dismiss Nancy Pelosi, “said Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
McAdams added that whatever the new maps, the current political climate has “created a huge amount of opportunities for Republicans to win. When you look at Joe Biden’s performance and his numbers with independents, there is a huge opportunity for Republicans.”
Adam Kincaid, chairman of the National Republican Redistribution Trust, said Democratic legislators in Nevada, Illinois, Oregon and New Mexico have “outgrown themselves” by picking out districts that may have voted more Democratic in past elections, but reached Republicans this November.
He pointed to Nevada in particular, and called it the “dummymander” of the cycle. In Nevada, the Democratic majority “unpacked” or sifted some voters from the heavily Democratic 1st District to sideline Districts 3 and 4, both of which are democratic regimes.
“Democrats were trying to pull as many seats as possible from Biden + 8 to Biden +12. And I don’t see those seats being held this fall,” he said.
“Let’s accept the premise they make [win those Nevada seats]”It’s a bad cycle,” Burton replied. Democrats can get it back in the presidential year and in a good cycle, because voters can decide the outcome of those elections. By definition, that’s what it should be. “
Kincaid added that their numbers show that states with independent or bipartisan commissions are a “wash” for both sides, which he said is a “big win”.
Republicans show gains in pro-Trump seats
The NRRT figures also show that in the 18 states controlled by Republicans, they have increased the number of seats favored by former President Donald Trump (by at least 10 points in 2020) by 17 seats. They were able to do so through states like Texas, which pushed their current Republicans into their districts by pulling more rural areas at the cost of competitive seats.
On the whole map, the NRRT numbers show an increase of 11 strong Trump seats compared to an increase of 2 strong biden seats. Kincaid raises the ground for House Republicans and enables them to focus on offensive targets and spend more money and less to protect incumbents.
“Republicans have done much better than Democrats in regaining votes in the suburbs than Democrats in regaining votes in rural areas. I think what we’ve done is we’ve given ourselves the ability to build our coalition when they’re hoping their biden alliance is together. “And I don’t see any sign of that happening right now,” he said.
Competitive seats are reduced
According to CBS News analysis, the number of competing districts (+/- 5 points with biased inclinations) has decreased by ten. Experts and analysts warn that the steady decline in competitive house races in recent decades could play a major role in primary elections.
And that could result in a more biased and polarized American House.
“Everything in the country now comes to the primary level and the primary voters are a small part of the general electorate. And those are the decision makers, “said Michael Lee, a redistribution specialist at the Brennan Center.” There will be very little competition for the foreseeable future.
While like the Republican states Texas And while Georgia effectively took competitive seats off the board, dragging more rural areas into suburban districts, moderate Republican members of Congress such as Adam Kinsinger of Illinois and John Cutko of New York were forced to retire because of the Democratic map in their respective states.
Georgia Democrat Caroline Bouredoux, seen as a centrist Democrat, was forced into a current vs. post matchup in the state’s now-reliable Blue 7th District. She rep. Lucy lost to Macbeth, a very progressive Democrat and advocate against gun violence.
Tim Persico, executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said while their numbers show a decline in competitive seats, “cycle over cycle, what are competitive changes always.”
“Quote-unquote competitive may be different things in different cycles, but to a large extent it’s the same number of seats so our work doesn’t change that much,” he said. “We entered this cycle with the goal of getting out of redistribution with a winning map, and I think we have a map in which we can win.”
The NRRT estimates that in the new map, Trump or President Biden will lose 13 seats out of 10 in 2020. The NDRC found only 31 seats that fit their competitor’s definition, which is within two digits of 50% in the general bias measure.
Minority communities may be responsible for the population growth that added seats, but this is not reflected in the new map.
Despite the increase in the number of minorities and ethnic citizens As shown in the 2020 censusTheir representation was not reflected in many new maps.
In Texas, Hispanic or Latino residents closed their gap with whites to 0.5%, according to 2020 census data. On a map drawn by Republican legislators, the number of Latino-majority congressional districts remained the same, although the state granted them two new congressional seats from their population growth.
In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis put forward a map that demolished Florida’s 5th District, a sprawling Democratic district that stretched from Jacksonville to Tallahassee and had a large black population. It is now about a third of its original size, is a staunch Republican and has a 12.8% black voting age population.
In New York, Some Democratic MPs The Congress map adopted by the court claims that the black members of the Congress have been targeted by dragging several democratic office bearers in the same seat.
California and Illinois The Asian majority and the Latino-majority were able to increase the number of seats. Both the states have lost Congress districts after the census data became public.
Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama are all Republican-led states where issues of racial discrimination are expected to be resolved after the 2022 election. The issues were brought up early in the 2022 election cycle, with several state and federal court rulings deciding it was too close to the primary to change the map.
In Alabama, the U.S. Supreme Court will Listen to the issue after the November election Whether or not there should be two majority-black districts in a Republican-led state. Only one of the state’s six districts has a majority-black population, although 26.8% of the state’s population is black, according to the 2020 census.
Michael McDonald, a data expert at the University of Florida, said that if the Conservative-majority court removes the Voting Rights Act (VRA) in the Alabama case, it will be decisive for the future of voting rights and will have no effect. Protection of ethnic voting in federal legislation or law.
“It’s not just about voting, it’s about how effective your vote is. There are ways to make your vote less effective. One of them is through gerimandering,” he said. “You can see that some of these states went back and decided to redistribute their districts now that they know they don’t have to worry about Section Two of the Voting Rights Act.”
Current vs. current primaries
For the first time in modern history, the Upper East Side and Upper West Side of New York City will be in the same congressional district. The union means there will be a current match between longtime Democrat Gerold Nadler and Caroline Maloney in New York’s 12th District.
Officials from the same party have at least five other primary matchups across the country due to redistribution. Two have already played: Trump-backed Republican Alex Mooney defeated David McKinley in West Virginia’s Second District and Macbeth defeated Bordeaux in Georgia’s 7th District.
Illinois has both Democratic matchups (Sean Castine and Marie Newman, delegates in the 6th District of Illinois) and Republicans (Rep. Mary Miller and Rodney Davis in the 15th District of Illinois). In Michigan, Democrats Andy Levin and Haley Stevens are currently locked in the 11th District of the state against the post primary.