Global vehicle registration add-ons increased by 38% in April 2022 compared to April 2021. Despite several disturbing factors happening at once (invasion of Ukraine, Covid-19 blockade in China, chip and battery shortages, supply chain disruptions…), true is that there were 542,000 registrations last month, representing a 10.2% share of the total automotive market (7% BEV share). Given the steep declines in the overall market, and that hybrids without a connection were down for the first time since the isolation due to Covid-19 in April and May 2020, this should be considered an amazing result. This poor result in hybrid without a connection could mean that this year could be the best peak HEV year, with 2023 the start of downhill sales for this type of powertrain. We will see.
(Toyota, please note …)
Peak HEV is just one of the strange events that happen when the EV disorder hits the car market. It’s not just about the share of fuel, like the decline in cliff diesel sales in Europe. It is also about the OEM order, such as the rise of Chinese OEMs in the domestic market, the Volkswagen Group losing control of Europe and the addition of Tesla to what is currently the big 4 American (others are Toyota, GM, Stellantis and Ford).
In April, BEVs (+ 47% year-on-year) grew faster than PHEVs (+ 22%), with the latter power plant suffering from declining sales in Europe. From the year to date, the share of supplements has remained stable at 11% (8.3% BEV).
# 1 for the Wuling Mini EV
Looking at the monthly chart of best-selling vehicles, the little Wuling Mini EV won another monthly title, its first this year, followed by the BYD Song PHEV. Thanks to a record 20,181 registrations, Song PHEV managed to surpass Tesla’s Model Y, which fell to third place, damaged by the closure of Tesla’s production unit in Shanghai. This is the first time that the Chinese model has managed to beat its American rival, and if we were to add the BEV version to this number (4,927 units, new record), BYD’s mid-size would be terribly close to # 1 Wuling Mini EV (25,108 vs. 27,181) .
Will we soon see BYD’s SUV win first place?
Right behind the podium we have the expected # 4 Tesla Model 3 and # 5 BYD Qin PHEV. Then the medium-sized Chinese has three more BYDs to follow, with a small Dolphin at # 6, a large Han EV at # 7, and a compact Yuan Plus at # 8. So, we can say that, with the exception of the city car category, BYD had models that were leaders in sales in all size categories – subcompacts (Dolphin – 12,046 units), compacts (Yuan Plus – 10,112 units, new record), a hotly contested category medium size (Song PHEV – 20,181 or 25,108 including BEV version) and full size models (Han EV – 10,243 units, or 13,439 if we include PHEV version).
April can be considered an unusual month, due to the above disorders, and should not be considered a month that sets trends. Still, it will be interesting to see if BYD can repeat this dominance in the future.
However, one thing is for sure – the model line of this car manufacturer in Shenzhen is true all the stars constellation, with top players in every position * of the game. (*Apart from the city car category, something BYD expects to solve with its future Seagull model …)
Despite such a difficult month, there were other record holders in the top half of the table. The Kia EV6 No. 10 achieved a record 9,085 registrations, highlighting a positive month for the new generation of South Korean electric vehicles, and the Hyundai Ioniq 5 finished the month in 9th place, with 9,748 registrations. The Korean models were the best-selling EVs from the inherited OEM, proving that Hyundai-Kia won the bet with these two models. This begs the question: since the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and its cousin Kia EV6 are not sold in China, what is Hyundai-Kia waiting for to launch them there?!? I mean, it is just the largest market for electric vehicles in the world….
Two more record results were recorded in the second half of the table. The small Leap Motor T03 had a record 7,156 registrations, with a promising startup EV finishing the month at # 13. It took second place in the city car category, behind omnipotent Wuling Mini EV and a little ahead of # 14 Chery QQ Ice Cream. The second record result went to the surprising Ford Mustang Mach-E. Thanks to the start of its Chinese operations and greater availability in the Mexican factory, the electric crosser had the best result ever of 6,898 units, which allowed it to jump into the top 20 at # 15. Expect the stylized crossover to continue to increase shipments over the next few months. He could become a famous face here.
And it’s not just the Ford EV that has benefited from a slower month by Chinese OEMs to win a presence on the table. In # 20, we have the small Fiat 500e appearing among the best-selling for the first time, with 5,615 registrations.
Stellantis could have won gold with the little Italian, because this performance was only in Europe, and the little EV could be a success story in other places – like in North America, where Fiat needs something like this to come to life; in Latin America, where Fiat’s strong position could give it a degree of popularity and help start electric cars there; and in Asia, where it might be particularly interesting to see the launch. Asia is currently Stelantis Achilles whole. OEM needs a remarkable product to break into the leading Asian markets, and there is nothing like the 500e on the market, so the little Italian it could be.
Come on, Carlos Tavares, I know it’s not in your nature, but be brave and bet on the Fiat 500e in markets outside of Europe! I believe you would be surprised by the results …
(And it could really compete in Asia, where small cars are a big deal. Besides, it’s not exactly that the Stellantis models are the best-selling there. In the unlikely event that 500e bombs, well, that’s just another model to join the long failure list …)
In the table from the beginning of the year (YTD), the upper positions remained stable. The first five positions had enough distance from each other that they didn’t change much. In the coming month, looking at our notes below, there are a lot of changes:
- After # 4 BYD Song PHEV and # 5 BYD Qin PHEV, we now have three more BYDs, with Dolphin in 6th, Han EV in 7th and Tang PHEV in 8th. That makes it 5 BYD in the top 10!
- Much has been done at the expense of VW ID.4, which, due to the blockade of Covid-19 in China and the lack of flow of components from its Ukrainian suppliers, had a slow April, forcing the German crossover to fall since the beginning of the year. table up to 9.
In the bottom half of the table, Korean Hyundai Ioniq 5, which advanced one place to # 11, and Kia EV6, which jumped four positions to # 16, continued to climb the positions. With the retro-futuristic Hyundai having just 215 units behind VW ID.4 # 9, we could see the Korean soon jump a few more positions and become the best-selling EV among old OEMs.
In second place, Hozon Neta V climbed one position, to # 18. Also, we have two new faces in the top 20 rising star BYD Yuan Plus has joined the top 20 at # 17 (on its way to joining the top 10 soon), making it 7th BYD in the table. Meanwhile, in # 20, we now have a Ford Mustang Mach-E. After falling close to the top 20 for several months, it profited from a slower month in April than its Chinese rivals (and a record month…) to finally join the best-selling list. Will he stay here?
WORLD in # 1
In April, BYD seemed immune to Covid-19 blockades and achieved a record result, with BYD close to 106,000 registrations. That brought him almost 20% of the global accessories market, with Tesla in second place and SGMW in third.
There were a few surprises under the podium. Once again, Kia (5th, 20,304 registrations) and Hyundai (7th, 18,154 registrations) showed their good form. Volkswagen, on the other hand, was only number 9, with only 15,034 registrations, severely affected by quarantine in China and the war in Ukraine.
It was so bad for the German brand that Volvo No. 8 fared better than them, and Chery No. 10 finished just 18 units behind….
In the second half of the table, # 11 Dongfeng continued to improve its position, just like Ford, which seems to have recently won its mojo back. Meanwhile, the Shanghai-based SAIC suffered from being at the epicenter of the Covid-19 blockade in China, falling to # 13.
In the last position on the table, we have the Chinese EV startup Leap Motor, which profited from the record result of its bread and butter model, T03. The brand achieved a record 9,087 registrations and was among the top 20. The little-known Chinese startup, which arrived on the market only in 2019, has great ambitions. With popular models, like the little T03, Y-like model C11, and the upcoming C01, we might be present others Chinese dark horse.
In the table from the beginning of the year, BYD returned to the first place, overtaking Tesla, with both brands returning to the same position and distance they had at the end of January (about 42,000 units between them).
Given that Tesla is expected to have lower shipments this quarter than Q1, it could be the case that BYD could end this quarter slightly ahead of Tesla, but again, assuming BYD continues to release 100,000+ performances in May and June, something that has not yet been proven, especially in May (since the Covid-19 blockades continued to affect sales in May in China).
Below these two, which are really in their league, the SGMW joint venture is comfortably in third place. Below him, BMW gained a valuable advantage over 5th-placed Volkswagen, while Kia jumped three positions to # 7. Another climber, # 9 Chery, is now ahead of # 10 SAIC, with # 11 Volvo only 184 units behind the top 10 ranked. The race is close between these three.
Looking at the top 20, Dongfeng rose one spot, to # 14, while XPeng and Peugeot advanced two positions, to # 16 and # 17, respectively – both benefiting from slow months from OEMs such as Great Wall and Li Xiang.
The final reference goes to Ford’s reappearance in the table, in # 19. It seems that the car manufacturer Dearborn has left behind problems with the battery and is ready for that Do it Blue oval shiny again.
Let’s look at OEM registrations. At the end of Q1, Tesla was leading with a 15.5% share, with an advantage of 1.2 percentage points over BYD. BYD is now the new leader, with a 15.4% stake, an increase of 1.1 points. Tesla is in second place, with a 13.7% stake. Will the carmaker from Shenzhen keep the advantage over Tesla during 2022? I believe that in the second half of the year, Tesla will win, because it has greater growth potential. Unless, of course, BYD starts exporting really large quantities in the second half of the year, something like tens of thousands of cars a month. However, I expect that this will not happen until 2023.
SAIC (8.3%, down 0.2 points from Q1) and Volkswagen Group (7.6%, also down 0.2 points) remained in 3rd and 4th place, respectively, while up # 5 Hyundai-Kia (5.7%, growth of 0.3 points) surpassed Geely-Volvo, and the Koreans have now started appearing in the No. 4 rearview mirror of the Volkswagen Group.
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