It cannot be bypassed. Despite heavy losses. Despite the artillery exchange, which now seems to be seriously favorable for Ukraine. Despite poor organization, poor logistics, poor management, poor training and poor maintenance, Russia is still deploying enough forces in eastern Ukraine to slowly move towards the critical seats in Luhansk and Donetsk.
Ukrainian troops have achieved fantastic things, pushing Russian forces out of Kharkov. These efforts are significant not only because they have liberated dozens of Ukrainian towns and villages, but also because the repulsion of Russian forces has significantly reduced the number of roundabouts and missiles that land in Kharkov every day, with the sole aim of killing civilians.
However, after an exciting and rapid start, things in this area for Ukraine were slow. Over the past two weeks, some important sites have been hijacked, most notably Vesel, which are helping to remove Russian artillery targets targeted at the city, but on June 14, Ukrainian troops are still involved in attempts to oust Russian forces from Leipzig. I have been actively trying to capture since the first week of May.
At the moment, Russian forces in the Kharkiv region are submerged in fortified positions, supported by both artillery and aircraft from across the border. By clearing Russia of this remaining band above Kharkov, Ukraine will need one thing everywhere, not more American artillery: more Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian army is reportedly training three new teams using Ukrainian volunteers, foreign volunteers and conscripts. These troops, reportedly trained to operate many of the new systems donated by NATO nations, are undoubtedly the most valuable resource Ukraine needs to deploy.
This is a NASA FIRMS fire map for the Severodonetsk region at noon ET. The hotspots in the areas allegedly under the control of Ukrainian forces are highlighted in blue. Everything else on this map is being dropped by the Russian occupation forces. For almost two weeks now, not only has more shells been dropped on Russian-controlled territory than on the heads of Ukrainian forces, but most of what is being directed to Ukraine’s positions is in the highest positions in the city of Severodonetsk. Ukraine seems to be far ahead when it comes to battery fire targets in other parts of these cities.
However, see point 1. That is not enough. Russia has not taken all of Severodonetsk, but has thwarted all attempts at counter-attack. More importantly, Russia is occupying more territory west of Severodonetsk, jeopardizing both Ukraine’s ability to carry out these artillery shots and its security of supply or withdrawal.
The Russian movements in the area appear to have taken place in three stages. First, there was a direct transfer to Severodonetsk, which included a number of adjacent positions, including the town of Rubižne. When these efforts came to a halt, Russia moved to Silverskyi on the occupied side of the Donetsk River. These efforts have been more successful, as it is still reported that the dispute is limited to Ozern and Severodonetsk. Russia has now begun to move down from this long position in Izjum, attacking villages in the south and moving to join other Russian forces across the river.
All this makes it sound much “cleaner” than it used to be. Russia has failed again and again, and again and again, in its efforts to take even small positions. And premature pushing into the river caused a triple catastrophe, blowing up a whole BTG on the river bank. As everywhere since the beginning of the invasion, Russia continues to use “fire probing” – also known as sending troops forward until they are shot. Then sending more force forward so you can determine where the bullets are coming from. Then send more troops forward.
It is reported that on the last day of the Russian attack from Izjum has reached the town of Bohorodychne on the west bank of the river. Some reports suggest that Russia has completely occupied the city, while fighting in others is still ongoing. However, it appears that Russia intends to take a bend in both sides of the river, which includes both Bohorodychne and Tetyanivka. Assuming they can repair or replace the bridge in the area, this would allow them to move forces across the river at a point about 20 km south of the current crossing.
All this forces Russia to join forces to attack the positions they consider to be the real prize in the area: Slovianska and neighboring Kramatorsk.
However, something else is happening…
The area, just west of Izyum, is heavily wooded and is crossed by several logging roads. There are only a few settlements in the area. At one point, Russia used the area to settle some of the more than 20 BTGs that were deployed around Izjum. Ukrainian forces carried out a series of strikes, attacking these forces without the obvious aim of occupying and retaining the territory.
Many of these BTGs are now involved in moving south, and Ukraine seems to be seeing an opportunity. On Monday, it occupied the villages of Zavody and Spivakivka in this wooded area. During the last hour when this article was prepared on Tuesday, there were reports that the Ukrainian forces had also fully occupied the village of Prudonetsk – the next stop – Izju. In addition, a couple of Russian Ka-52 helicopters were reportedly shot down in the area as Ukrainian forces crashed into the outskirts of the city. (Note: Although reports of Prudonetsk come from a number of sources that have been shown to be reliable in the past, consider this to be largely unconfirmed; I’ve updated the map to reflect this change.)
In both Kherson and Izjum, Ukrainian forces now hold the village just 10 km from the city. However, Russia has actively acquired and consolidated the Kherson area. It seems that Izyum is not right. Russia’s latest attempts to move southeast of Izhya on Tuesday have been unsuccessful, with more reports of heavy casualties.
Ukraine has continued to remain in Severodonetsk, and there is no doubt that they have completely destroyed various Russian units that tried to occupy the city from positions across the river in Lysichansk. But what they need is just a little less than the new brigades reportedly training in the West are a big benefit. Recovery of Izyum would be a huge victory. This looks possible.
The biggest problem is that this wooded area is inherently difficult to maintain. There are roads leading in all directions. What made it so easy for Ukraine to stay and move in the area in the past could have made it very difficult to keep it as a base for attacking the city.
Kherson
Several reports were received on Tuesday morning that Ukrainian forces had occupied the city Acid and marched rapidly along the highway to attack Russian forces at Chornobaivka, right on the outskirts of Kherson. However, most of these reports seem to be related to a single source and are not mentioned in the Russian telegram accounts. While it would be nice to believe, consider this extreme sketch.
Russian Blasting Theater
The crash of this Russian helicopter is now one of two reported on Tuesday.