I like this kind of video:
The joy is real, but hardened with the knowledge that soon enough their relatives will return to the greatest danger imaginable. I cannot wait for the last holiday, when Russia will be defeated, when families will finally be able to reunite forever.
But these videos also tell something else: things are not as bad for Ukraine as some claim. If Ukraine lost 300-1000 troops a day on the front lines, they would not rotate inside and out. And while we don’t know the individual stories that play out here, they’re not broken service workers.
Throughout the week, I have been skeptical of Ukrainian claims of mass casualties as propaganda tricks to keep the flow of weapons in the West. Ukraine is. is concerned that Western attention is not only declining but may eventually turn to them due to inflation, energy availability and other economic problems. Energy will be a real European challenge this year, and the political right is exploiting chaos, either in France, where the hard right has just made huge progress in parliament, or here, where Republicans are salivating in November. .
However, given the fantastic evidence available, these fantastic claims by the Ukrainians never made much sense. NASA FIRMS data show that more artillery is landing in Russian-controlled territory than in Ukraine. And, of course, NASA FIRMS satellite imagery isn’t perfect, but you could expect much bigger fire differences if Russia really had a 10: 1 advantage in the artillery. Check out the fires in Severodonet in the last three days:
Most of these fires occur in Russian-controlled territory. Those on Ukrainian soil can be counted with one hand. Ukraine is crowding out Russian artillery and logistics targets, and it looks similar across the Donbass front. For example, Popasna is severely beaten. Meanwhile, Russia’s own accounts have lamented their own perceived inability to keep up with Ukrainian artillery.
Meanwhile, if Ukraine were to suffer up to 1,000 victims every day, how would it be able to engage in counter-attacks in the Kharkiv, Kherson and Izhya areas? It is clear that Ukraine has significant spare capacity to cause damage three on other battle fronts. Now all three counter-attacks are restricted. Russia is too entrenched, the terrain is too exposed to artillery protection, and Ukraine has no figures to get through. But they are lurking around, forcing Russia to divert reserves from Donbass to these other fronts so that it does not lose more hard-earned territory.
This statement “we are being hit hard” also contradicted what the Ukrainian military command was saying. Indeed, the differences between Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership have been sharp. Compare the presidential adviser with the Ukrainian military command in terms of Western artillery donations:
He said that Ukraine urgently needed to move to a larger and more complex Western system, but that they had only recently been introduced and were insufficient to meet Russia’s enormous firepower.
It should be noted, for example, that the Ministry of Defense has fulfilled the initial request of the armed forces for 155 mm of artillery units by 90%.
Indeed, their AM stated that they now have 110% more artillery shells than at the start of the war!
The last drop was the link between military statements on Russian casualties (100-250 per day) and Ukraine’s most hysterical claim per 1,000 casualties per day (including 300 wounded). If that were true, then yes, Russia would do much better than their battlefield progress would suggest.
Eventually, someone at Ukraine’s highest command realized that their increasingly hysterical statements were not a great look.
And with this statement, I can finally put peace on this subject. Ukraine does not need to exaggerate its sacrifices in order to receive more Western support and assistance. On the contrary, people like to support the winner. “Let’s expel Russia from all over Ukraine” is a winning story, even by the president Emmanuel Macron finally accepted.
None of this means that Ukraine is not suffering terrible losses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky set them at 50-100 a day a few weeks ago. That’s bad enough, no need to overdo it to get the effect. We see quite clearly the death that Russia is raining over Ukraine.
Meanwhile, essentially nothing has changed since Mark was last updated. Sunday’s summary is as follows:
There is still controversy over Russia’s highest priority in Severodonetsk. The war research institute concluded that “fighting in the area has largely come to a halt and Russian forces are increasingly failing to strengthen control of the city, even with artillery supremacy.” Ukraine really benefits from the view of the city from the cliffs of Lysichansk across the Donetsk River, pulling out artillery, supporting Russia ‘s progress, while raining with mortar fire in Russian positions in the city itself.
And the fight from house to house, in a way we have not seen since Mariupol.
Good insight into how artillery works. Spotter has drone, finds a Russian position. Calls in coordinates. The artillery unit makes two shots that fall to the right of the intended target. Spotter corrects, and then the artillery “shoots to achieve an effect.” Volleys are still off. An additional adjustment is followed by a third shutter and strikes the vehicle.
On the other hand:
Installation, three shots, and then they are missing, ahead of any potential battery fire. Note that they take the shell shells with them, trying to leave less war waste for the inevitable cleaning of the future.
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Additional confirmation of what I wrote:
In fact, the two have said that Ukraine has received most of its requested pipe artillery.
And it is quite foolish to demand more howitzers than in the US Army, let alone completely disregard the logistical requirements of this equipment. I have already written about the challenges of supplying only four HIMARS missile artillery. There is no way that Ukraine could keep 300 of them, literally impossible. (Every day of the 10 fire missions, we are talking about 7,500 tons of ammunition or 53 C5 cargo planes… day. The US has 52 C5 In total).
At least you know what you’re asking for before it harasses people and gives them more reason to foolishly complain that Ukraine is somehow being abandoned.