Donald Trump has made it clear that he will soon announce his 2024 candidacy. Modeled after Hungarian fascist Viktor Orbán, his campaign will be based on racism and fear of the LGBTQ population, with a particular focus on “law and order”. Trump plans to use the police, the military, and white supremacist groups to intimidate and suppress voters who might not want to support him. Assuming the Justice Department doesn’t indict and jail Trump for his actions in connection with the Jan. 6 coup attempt, Republicans will once again rally behind him. (And neither Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis nor any other Trump clone will be able to mount a credible challenge to him, whatever minor policy differences might create.)
It is not known whether President Joe Biden will run for re-election in 2024, so there is little point in speculating about the outcome of this election at this time. But Republicans have already confirmed that if they win control of the House in 2022, they will immediately continue the bogus impeachment show trials and pointless, theatrical Benghazi-style “investigations” non-stop until 2024. The investigation into the January 6 uprising will continue. closed, and there will be no further investigation into either Trump’s wrongdoing or the enabling activities of their own members of the association.
In that case, the face of the GOP will be current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, but its main drivers will be a Trump-loyal faction led by the likes of Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Baebert, Paul Gossard, and plenty. to other racists and “Christian” white supremacists on the Republican side. While their actual power may be limited by (hopefully) continued Democratic control of the Senate, their role is essentially to pave the way for Trump’s re-election, not to actually pass legislation.
The corrupt conservative majority of the US Supreme Court has already made it clear that they want to operate as an arm of Republican politics. The Court will continue to do so by limiting the power of the executive branch (when in Democratic hands) to work in the interests of Americans; opposing permanent white minority rule, repealing protections previously provided in the Voting Rights Act; and, most recently, declaring his willingness to abide by legal overturning if that overturning favors the Republican Party. Fortunately, this court’s precise and visible relinquishment of its legitimacy (with its repeal Roe v. Wadearbitrarily expanding access to lethal firearms and ranting against the Environmental Protection Agency, all in one week) has alerted millions of Americans that not only their form of government, but also the way they actually want to live their lives, is now seriously endangered.
As Josh Marshall noted in TalkingPointsMemo, Three “general vote” polls released in the past two days have shown a significant Democratic surge since the Supreme Court’s crude and insane assertion of its political bias last June.
[T]Three new congressional general polls have come out in the past 24 hours, two of which give Democrats a six-point lead and one of which gives them a four-point lead. One of those 6 point margins is actually a Republican poll.
Various other midterm indicators continue to move slowly but noticeably in the Democratic direction. As we’ve discussed at various points over the past few weeks, the House remains a very strong battle for Democrats. But this trend leads me to believe that Democrats taking the House in November is certainly possible and increasingly likely. Not a lost cause at all.
Marshall notes that the poll shows an unusual disconnect with voters; despite their rather sour feelings about inflation, the economy, and President Biden’s performance, they apparently equate the Republican alternative to the (so far) very unwelcome return of Donald Trump, whose star has been significantly tarnished by the January revelations. 6 investigation.
… And this is definitely not the norm. A new Morning Consult poll shows that the Jan. 6 hearings are seriously weighing on independents about Donald Trump. And that shift, in turn, shows up on general election ballots.
At least according to this one poll, the gravity of the Jan. 6 hearings has voters viewing the midterms more as a choice between Republicans and Democrats than a referendum on the president or the state of the country in general.
So Americans, despite their famous disconnection from politics (especially during the summer months), have been paying attention. At least enough Americans to potentially reverse what initially looked like imminent Democratic annihilation in 2022, though it’s still too early to make such predictions.
So does professor and author Mark Danner, writing for the site new york review of books, has some smart advice for Democrats: If 2022 is indeed the most important election in our nation’s history (as it appears to be by almost any objective measure), then Democrats need to make that clear and loud to voters.
As Danner writes in the aptly titled essay We’re in an emergency – act like it! a confluence of factors ultimately traceable to Donald Trump makes the next election unique.
The 2022 elections will be the first to be held under the shadow of a coup attempt—an almost successful and still unpunished crime against the state. It will be the first after the Supreme Court’s decision, which not only highlighted the rights established half a century ago, but also threatens to take away other rights. And it will be the first to make it clear that the very nature of American governance is on the ballot, from Republican lawmakers’ relentless efforts to change the vote counter.
Danner acknowledges the obvious: Every recent election seems to live up to the cliche of “most important in our lives.” But there is more than enough evidence, he says, that in the case of 2022, that characterization is not excessive given its potential impact on the lives of Americans and their children and grandchildren.
American voters have not faced such a difficult choice since 1860. Now, as then, two starkly different futures are on offer. Limiting the right to private life, the Supreme Court Dobbs the decision not only allows the government to force women to carry pregnancies, as more than half of the states will soon do, but also envisions a state where the state or the federal government can deny people contraception or the right to love or marry. they choose. By limiting the regulation of firearms, Bridge the decision ensures that an increasing number of Americans, including children in classrooms, worshipers in churches and marchers on the Fourth of July, will die in shootings. By calling into question how votes are counted—whether they should matter at all—the January 6 coup and the persistent “Big Lie” behind it envision a country in which a candidate for whom fewer Americans voted can not only become president (as he did in 2000 and 2016), but a state’s electoral votes may be awarded not as a choice of its citizens, but as a dictate of the legislature.
Danner’s view is that there will be an election in 2022 that will either usher in and confirm a new era of Republican racist autocracy in this country, or significantly slow that trend: “If any election screams for nationalization, let it be fought not just in the kitchen. – inflation and unemployment problems, but about the defining principles of what the country is and what it should be – this is in November of this year. His advice to Democrats is to make that point crystal clear to voters over and over again.
Danner emphasizes that this is how Democrats should frame these midterms:
If you don’t want a government that can force you to carry an unwanted pregnancy, vote!
If you don’t want a government that can deny you birth control – vote!!
If you don’t want a government that can tell you who you can love and who you can marry – vote!!
If you don’t want a government that will do nothing to protect your child from a troubled teenager with an assault rifle – vote!!
If you don’t want a government that can ignore the voice of the people at the polling station – vote!!
If you don’t want a government that will do nothing about warming and the dangers it poses to us all, vote!
But in addition to this “negative framing,” Danner stresses that the Democratic Party needs to face what it will do for Americans to prevent the Republican assault on their rights: not only want to do these things but how to they will do them. It comes with a bold, no-nonsense — though terrifying to some — commitment to undo the failure by adding at least two Democratic senators. It also includes calling on the House to proceed with legislation so fundamental that it cannot morally be subjected to any secret Senate procedure designed in an age of civility that no longer exists and never will.
And every Democratic candidate has to say over and over again, whether they’re running for the House, the Senate, or whatever, that when Republicans take away our basic rights, like the right to be protected from mass shooters, the right to control our bodies, to buy birth control means and marry what we want…voting democrat is the only way to stop them.
Danner wrote his essay ahead of the surprise announcement of a climate and budget deal between Senator Joe Manchin, Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Biden administration. Assuming the deal goes through, it will restore some of the credibility with their base that Democrats have lost due to Manchin’s (and Sen. Kirsten Sinem’s) past obstructionism, and that’s helpful. But it’s one thing to point to some modest successes for Democrats, and another to say that if Republicans take over any legislative branch, the future will be far different than what most Americans want for themselves, for their children. and their country.
And yes, Americans can reject it. As a country, we can continue to stare at our smartphones, be willing to sacrifice our democracy while complaining loudly about the cost of a gallon of gas. It is certainly our right. But we won’t be able to say we weren’t warned.