The development capped a remarkable week for Barnes: On Monday, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson dropped out of the race and endorsed the lieutenant governor, and two days later, former Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry did the same. After Lasry’s departure, Godlewski insisted she would stay in the race, but despite $4 million in self-funding, she fared poorly in the polls and had little chance of overtaking the lead.
Barnes had spent a year battling the trio for the right to replace Sen. Ron Johnson, the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election in November. If successful, he would be the state’s first black member of the Senate, a trip that could cap a meteoric rise over the past decade.
Barnes, now 35, first won office in 2012, ousting a Democratic member of the state Assembly after denouncing the incumbent over his support for school vouchers. He then ran for lieutenant governor in 2018, easily winning his own primary, and then, on a ticket with Tony Evers, narrowly unseated Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his runner-up, Rebecca Klefisch (who is now running against Evers for his old). boss job).
However, Barnes’ toughest task is yet to come. Wisconsin is the very definition of a swing state, and Johnson, unlike most Republicans running for Senate, has actually raised a legitimate amount — nearly $18 million — and is also very wealthy. Barnes has brought in a much smaller $7 million so far, but his fundraising is sure to skyrocket now that the entire Democratic Party has rallied around him.
Lasry also provides a welcome boost: The wealthy former candidate, who had given his campaign $15 million, still had $584,000 in paid-but-unused TV time after bowing out, so he decided to run ads bashing Johnson. on the outsourcing of work.
After all, much more will be spent in this race, which will be one of the most expensive in the country. But Barnes now gets a week-and-a-half head start on a critical three-month sprint that could determine whether Democrats retain control of the Senate.
● AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov, AZ-AG, AZ-SoS: Republican firm OH Predictive Insights (R) has re-surveyed the Aug. 2 GOP primary for Arizona’s statewide race, with no clients listed.
In the Senate race, former Thiel Capital COO Blake Masters has a 36-21 lead over businessman Jim Lamon, while state Attorney General Mark Brnovich has 12 percent, an improvement for Masters over his 25-18 lead over Lamon at the same firm. survey from the beginning of July. For governor, they have Trump-backed former TV news anchor Kari Lake 51-33 over Board of Regents member Karin Taylor-Robson, a big increase for Lake from her 39-31 lead in July.
In the race for state attorney general, Trump-backed former Maricopa County Prosecutor Abe Hamadeh has a 31-16 lead over Rodney Glassman, a former Democrat who lost the 2020 GOP primary for Maricopa County assessor. Mark Fincham is leading advertiser Bo Lane 32-11 with state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita at 9% and state Rep. Sean Bolick at 8%. Their previous poll in July showed only a 14-6 lead for Finchem over Ugenti-Rita with Lane at 5% and Bolick at 3%.
Meanwhile, a relatively new pollster called Alloy Analytics has also examined the gubernatorial GOP primary benchmark, and their poll finds Lake 45-35 ahead of Robeson. Alloy pollster Landon Wall says the survey had no sponsors and he himself paid for it.
● CO-Sen: NRSC spends $240,000 on cablewhich is a modest amount, but it is their first entry in the contest between Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and businessman Joe O’Dea, his Republican challenger.
● IA-Sen, IA-01Former GOP Rep. Jim Leake, who lost to former Democrat Rep. Dave Loebsack in 2006 after representing eastern Iowa in the House for 30 years, has announced he is switching parties to the Democratic Party and is endorsing retired Navy Vice Adm. Mike. Franken for Senate and State Rep. Christina Bohanan in District 1. Leach said he was prompted to make the change in response to Jan. 6 and Republican lies about the 2020 election results.
● MO-Sen: SurveyUSA has conducted a new poll for Gray Television for several Missouri television stations, examining the August 2 bipartisan primary as well as several potential general election matchups.
On the GOP side, state Attorney General Eric Schmidt leads former Gov. Eric Greitens by 28-20, Rep. Vicki Hartzler by 13% and colleague Billy Long by just 8%. On the Democratic side, wealthy philanthropist Trudy Bush Valentine is beating Marine veteran Lucas Kunz 40-14.
Looking ahead to November, SurveyUSA has pitted the top three Republicans against every Democrat, along with former U.S. Attorney John Wood, a Republican-turned-independent who launched his campaign in June and has benefited from a $5 million advertising blitz from allied super- PAC. :
Eric Schmidt (R): 37, Lucas Kunze (D): 27, John Wood (I): 10; Schmidt (R): 36, Trudy Bush Valentine (D): 30, Wood (I): 9
Vicki Hartzler (R): 34, Kunce (D): 25, Wood (I): 12; Hartzler (R): 32, Valentine (D): 31, Wood (I): 9
Eric Greitens (R): 31, Kunce (D): 26, Wood (I): 12; Greitens (R): 31, Valentine (D): 31, Wood (I): 13
● Senate: A huge pile of polls popped up on Friday, so we’re rounding them all up below:
AZ-Sen: Beacon Research (D) for Environmental Voters Project: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 50, Jim Lamon (R): 40; Kelly (D-boarding): 51, Mark Brnovich (R): 40; Kelly (gained): 51, Blake Masters (R): 39
GA-Sen: Beacon Research (D) for Environmental Voters Project: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 48, Herschel Walker (R): 43
GA-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) Fox News: Warnock (D-inc): 46, Walker (R): 42
GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage (R) Fox 5 Atlanta: Warnock (D-inc): 48, Walker (R): 45, Chase Oliver (L): 3
GA-Sen: PEM Management Corporation for conservative John Bolton super PAC: Walker (R): 46, Warnock (D-inc): 42
NC-Sen: PEM Management Corporation for Conservative John Bolton Super PAC: Sherri Beasley (D): 43, Ted Budd (R): 40
NV-Sen: Beacon Research (D) for the Environmental Voters Project: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 51, Adam Laxalt (R): 45
OH-Sen: PEM Management Corporation for Conservative John Bolton Super-PAC: Tim Ryan (D): 44, JD Wen (R): 38
PA-You: Beacon Research (D) for the Environmental Voters Project: John Fetterman (D): 50, Mehmet Oz (R): 39
PA-You: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) Fox News: Fetterman (D): 47, Oz (R): 36
PA-You: PEM Management Corporation for conservative John Bolton super PAC: Fetterman (D): 44, Oz (R): 38
In particular, PEM polls for former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s super PAC had just 300 respondents each, the bare minimum required by Daily Kos Elections to be included in the compilation.
● WI-Gov: Mike Pence has endorsed former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch ahead of the Aug. 9 GOP primary, setting up another showdown between the former vice president and Donald Trump, who previously endorsed wealthy businessman Tim Michels.
● governors: Several new polls in key gubernatorial races also fell on Friday:
AZ-Gov: Beacon Research (D) for the Environmental Voters Project: Katie Hobbs (D): 48, Karin Taylor Robson (R): 40; Hobbs (D): 49, Kari Lake (R): 40
GA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) for Environmental Voters Project: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 51, Stacey Abrams (D): 43
GA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) Fox News: Kemp (R-inc): 47, Abrams (D): 44
GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (R) Fox 5 Atlanta: Kemp (R-inc): 49, Abrams (D): 44, Shane Hazell (L): 3
NV-Gov: Beacon Research (D) for Environmental Voters Project: Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 48, Joe Lombardo (R): 46
PA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) for the Environmental Voters Project: Josh Shapiro (D): 52, Doug Mastriano (R): 39
PA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) Fox News: Shapiro (D): 50, Mastriano (R): 40
● FL-10: End Citizens United, a progressive group that often spends in Democratic primaries, has endorsed gun safety activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost ahead of the Aug. 23 nominating contest.
● FL-13: Attorney Kevin Hayslett has released an internal American Viewpoint poll that finds him at just a 36-34 deficit against 2020 candidate Anna Pauline Luna in the Aug. 23 GOP primary, with 2020 candidate Amanda Maki at just 9%. Hayslett’s campaign revealed a previously unreleased June poll had Luna up 42-19 and McKee up 13%, claiming he had momentum. The release comes just weeks after a Tyson Group poll of the state GOP in early July found Luna leading Hayslett 37-17 with Makki at 10%.
● OK-02: The School Freedom Fund recently supported the growth of the club decreased by $1.1 million to TV and mail advertising campaign endorsing former state Sen. Josh Brehin and opposition state Rep. Avery Fricks ahead of the Aug. 23 Republican primary, though ad copy is not yet available.
Dollar amounts reflect reported ad buys and may be higher.