Five states are holding primaries tonight, while Kansas will vote on an amendment to remove the right to abortion from the state constitution. Ohio voters will also return to the polls for their state legislature, which was delayed by redistricting litigation (primaries for other Buckeye offices were held as scheduled in early May).
We’ll be posting the results live here, as well as covering the returns in depthon Twitter.
The main race:Previews | Cheat sheet
Results: AZ | KS | MI | MON | OH | WA
Good evening and welcome to one of the biggest primary nights of the 2022 cycle. The first part of the night includes big contests in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri, and then the western states chime in with primary results from Arizona and Washington state. Tune in for possibly one of the most intriguing primary nights of the year!
A couple of reminders before we leave for the evening. We will begin reporting results when results reach 10% of the expected total for the night. Now, this can be a flawed measurement — early results could be early voting that one candidate has worked harder to cultivate, or it could be disproportionately from a particular district or region. Therefore, we urge you not to jump to too many conclusions early at night.
MI-11 (D):And we start the night with one of the teeth-grinding election issues. If you follow USA Today (or the New York Times), they show that Rep. Andy Levin won that primary against Rep. Haley Stevens 59-41. But as you can see on the Oakland County website, Stevens holds the upper hand. Again, this is early voting and it’s hard to know if these votes are a normal distribution in the race or not. We’ve certainly seen races where the vote was more strongly in favor of one candidate (PA-12 comes to mind).
MI-11 (D):Digging a little deeper, we can see how Hayley Stevens has built this modest lead. As you might expect, she is doing quite well in the new Ward 11, which made up her old district. And as you might expect, Andy Levine is also doing pretty well in the new 11th Ward, which made up HIS old district. So the dividing line as we sit here at the start of the evening is that Hayley Stevens is running well ahead of Andy Levin in the parts of the district that have not been redistricted since January 2021 (about 1/3 of the new district is the remnants of the old 14th district) .
MI-12 (D):We’ve reached the threshold (right at 10%) in this race, and it turns out that many have their suspicions. Rep. Rashida Tlaib would probably have been in modest trouble if sent to a back-to-back competition. But since the opposition is divided into three different directions, she is working positively. Tlaib has 57%, and her closest competitor (Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey) has 25%.
Kansas:We’ve finally reached the threshold of what could be the most important race of the night: a voter initiative in Kansas that, if passed, would give the legislature the power to regulate abortions by any method they like, up to and including a total ban. .
But these are results that require a great deal of context. Currently: The NO side is 69-31, which is obviously great news. But there are two things to consider: 1) it’s almost entirely an early vote, which would undoubtedly benefit the more progressive side of the equation; 2) the vote is also disproportionately from bluer counties like Wyandotte, Douglas, and Riley counties. So…while the early returns are encouraging, this one has miles to go.
MI-Gov: We’ve passed the 10% milestone in the Republican primary for Michigan governor. Unsurprisingly (based on primary polls in recent weeks), conservative talk radio host Tudor Dixon has a significant lead. She is 43% to 20% for businessman Kevin Rink, 19% for Garrett Soldano and 15% for rebel real estate agent Ryan Kelly.
MO-04: I know you’ve all been in your seats to see who will replace Rep. Vicki Hartzler (who is currently running for Senate) as the Republican candidate in the deep red 4th District! We’ve reached the threshold and it’s a close three-way race. State Sen. Rick Brettin leads at 28%, rancher Cullen Bruce at 25%, and former broadcaster Mark Alford at 23% with a 17% estimate.
Kansas: We’re up to 22% reporting, and we’ve hit an important benchmark as Sedgwick County, the state’s most populous red county and home to Wichita, has started reporting. “No” (ie, the good guys) wins even there by a score of 62-38, which brings the national total to 65-35 in favor of “No”. As before, we’d like to remind everyone that these results should be viewed with extreme caution, but even though these votes are split across districts, these votes can still depend heavily on early voting (which, as we saw in 2020, tend to favor Democrats).
MO-Sen: We’re past the 10% reporting mark on the Republican side of the Senate race in Missouri, and it’s a split decision for Donald Trump. One of the Erics he endorsed, Attorney General Eric Schmidt, is on track for the nomination with 42%. However, the other Eric he supported, ex-Gov. Eric Greitens is 19% behind in third place. They are separated by representative Vicki Hartzler with 27%. Notably, there is another US representative in this race, Billy Long, who is dwindling to 3% all time. We’re still waiting for the Democratic side to reach a threshold before we can talk about who is most likely to oppose Schmidt.
MI-03: Some interesting results in Michigan’s 3rd district in the Republican primary, where we just passed the 11% threshold. It’s a race in which various Beltway pundits have hurt Democrats’ efforts to boost Trumpist challenger John Gibbs against moderate Republican incumbent Peter Meyer. Gibbs actually has a 53-47 lead over Myer right now, but the important context is that Gibbs relies heavily on smaller Ottawa County for that lead (where he’s 58-41 with 67% reporting), while Myer is winning in much larger Kent County (where home to the largest city, Grand Rapids), was up 57-43, reporting just 5%.
MO-Sen: We’re reporting up to 12% on the Democratic side in Missouri’s race (although this one seems less likely to take the left, with Eric Schmidt the GOP candidate instead of Eric Greitens). Beer baroness Trudy Bush Valentine beats veteran Lucas Kunz 45-35.
MI-Gov: The AP has called the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan for Tudor Dixon, meaning millions of Michiganders watching commercials will likely become familiar with Buddy BeBop vs. the Living Dead.
Kansas: Johnson County — Kansas’ most populous county in the Kansas City suburbs and one of the biggest swings from red to blue in a decade — just dropped a large number of votes on the abortion ballot, and most of them were on the “no” side: 72-28 in favor. no”, and a reported 70% of the county vote. That takes up 45% of reporting across the country and brings the overall top line to 66 no-34 yes. For now, we’ll continue to advise caution on the rise of football, but it’s starting to look like abortion foes will have a surge to reverse this situation with an Election Day vote.
MO-07: The race to replace Republican Rep. Billy Long in deep red Missouri’s 7th District in Springfield County has reached the 10% mark. State Sen. Eric Burlison leads the way so far with 36 percent, followed by state Sen. Jay Wasson (24) and the Rev. Alex Bryant (19).
MI-08: Also worth mentioning is that we’re over the threshold for the Republican primary in Michigan’s new 8th District (it’s basically the old Flint County 5th District with Democrat Rep. Dan Kildee, but it got more competitive in redistricting. ). Paul Junge, who last lost to Elissa Slotkin in the old 8th seat in 2020, has a big lead here with 55% over Candice Miller (no, not former Rep. Candice Miller, just someone with the same name) who has 23%.
The live blog continues here.