In more than 300 Tests since the TAB began betting on All Blacks Test results, the Kiwis have started as underdogs in the betting odds only four times.
And including this weekend, each of those four times the opposition has been the Springboks. In the previous three encounters when the All Blacks were not in favor, TAB’s experts or algorithms proved correct. All the blacks are gone.
So, based on that small sample, the signs are not good for the All Blacks when they face the world champions at Mbombela Stadium on Saturday. But it doesn’t take a betting company to figure it out.
The All Blacks are in unusual territory, especially in this century. They lost the home series 2-1 to Ireland and have lost four of their last five Tests. If they lose both the Test against the Boks and the Freedom Cup with them, they will be on a four-match losing streak, which has not happened since 1998.
Read more at Daily Maverick: “The All Blacks’ outrage doesn’t make them any less of a threat against the Boks“
Current form suggests that the All Blacks will struggle, but the great joy and mystery of the game is that the unexpected can happen. And honestly, it would hardly be a shock to see the All Blacks suddenly wake up from their slumber and beat the Boks.
Excellent record in South Africa
His record against South Africa is excellent. In the 101 Tests between the two sides, New Zealand has drawn 60 and Boks 37 matches.
In the 54 Tests played in South Africa, the All Blacks have beaten the Springboks 27 times and drawn 26 times. And South Africa’s record in the professional era reads: 32 played, 21 wins, 11 losses. If anything, the All Blacks should start as favourites.
Of course, this All Black team is in transition. Veteran players like captain Sam Kane are under pressure to reach their previous benchmarks while many new faces are not up to the expected standards.
Coach Ian Foster is hovering close to the exit door and reports in New Zealand suggest he will be sacked if the All Blacks lose both games on their tour of South Africa.
For Foster, who made four changes to the team that lost the third and deciding Test against Ireland in Wellington three weeks ago, the focus is on this weekend. There is no point worrying about the future when the Springboks’ immediate challenge is so daunting and pressing.
Read more at Daily Maverick: “Is lack of exposure to South African materialism behind the All Blacks’ slump?“
The key changes come in the pack where Foster admits their set-piece weaknesses against Ireland were a fundamental reason for the shock result.
Samisoni Taukeiaho has been named at hooker alongside props George Bower and Angus Tawao in the new-look front row. On the bench, Tyrell Lomax and Ethan de Groot have been named for the first time in the 2022 season, while hooker Dan Coles backs up Cody Taylor.
Powerful wing Caleb Clarke is also back in a clear sign that the All Blacks are aiming to increase their physicality after being threatened by Ireland.
“A lot has been built on the last series and we’re putting the building blocks in that series. Did we get everything right? No, we didn’t,” Foster said.
“We still have a lot of confidence in the areas where we want to improve our game. There are tweaks to the attacks that we are working on, some of them highlighting some of the focus points of our game that we didn’t get right.
“It’s not about bringing in 10 new things, it’s about bringing in a couple and honing two or three things that we wanted to do, but didn’t do well.
“We don’t like to lose, just like everybody doesn’t like to do that. It always creates an edge in the group with a lot of reflection,” Foster said.
“Players are reflecting on their own roles, performances, and how they grow. I definitely use the word reflection and it has created an edge.
“You look at where we are and who we’re playing against, so we have a very good composure. It’s an obvious challenge for us and we’re excited about it. We want to play better and we know we’re the best team ever in July. we don’t
“It’s the start of our year, like the South Africans, and I think we’ll be looking to improve on what we’ve seen in the first three Tests.”
The Springboks must improve
Although the Boks started their July series as favorites after beating Wales 2-1, the home side have also been far from the best.
The set pieces purred well against Wales, but the Boks’ attacking play was as blunt as a Gordon Ramsay put-down. However the upside was that they showed a bit more ambition in attack, despite the lack of execution.
The inclusion of Kurt-Lee Arendse on the right wing of the injured Cheslin Kolbe suggests the Boks want to try harder and ask different questions of the opposition.
A safer, and more defensive option would have been to return to Jesse Kriel, as they did on the November tour last year. But Ninaber is sending a message that the Boks aren’t completely ignoring growth and development, even with a big bet against an old foe.
Foster is expecting more, not less, from the Boks.
“I don’t see two strategies. I see one strategy where they want you to play in different ways,” he said. “It’s not like they’re going to play the same strategy for the whole game. They’re going to have two or three differences in how they want to play.
“We know they’re going to try to play us wide in certain set-ups, they’re going to try to play us aerial and they’re going to try to play through us. That’s what happens when you play great teams and the key is not to overdo one aspect of the game because they will move on to the next.”
As always the competition starts and ends with a battle up front, and at the end hooker Malcolm Marks’ first start in a year is a statement of intent for Bok coach Jack Nienaber.
Read more at Daily Maverick: “Rassie Erasmus warns against complacency – the Boks have a healthy respect for the All Blacks who remain a threat“
Marks is playing his 50th Test and although Ninaber indicated it was an emotional decision, nothing could be further from the truth. Marx, apart from his basic duties, is used to creating chaos in a breakdown fight.
He is the strongest and most effective presence on the ball and will be tasked with making the battle on deck a nightmare for the tourists.
The Bok lineout will also present a big challenge for young hooker Taukei’aho. Ireland in particular tore apart the All Blacks lineout in the third Test and this would not have gone unnoticed in Boks’ analysis centre.
Lud de Jager, Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit should provide quality possession from the lineout with ease, along with Marks and Bongi Mbonambi’s accurate throwing. And when the tourists are throwing in, the trio will attack the New Zealand ball at the right time.
The Bok bench is also packed with lineout firepower, with Franco Mostert and Salman Moerat set to keep the pressure on until the end.
In a good margin game, there won’t be much again. The Bok bench, especially between the six forwards, should prove the difference. DM
Teams:
South Africa
15 Damien Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Lukhanyo M, 12 Damien de Allende, 11 Makajole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Sia Kolisi, 5 Lud). De Jager, 4 Eben Ezebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marks, 1 Trevor Nykane
Reserves: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitschoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Salman Moerat, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Quagga Smith, 22 Jayden Hendricks, 23 Willie Le Roux.
New Zealand
15 Jordy Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rico Ioane, 12 David Havili, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardi Savea, 7 Sam Kane (capt), 6 Akira Ione, 5 Scott White, 4 Barre. 3 Angus Tawao, 2 Samisoni Taukeaho, 1 George Bower
Reserves: 16 Dan Coles, 17 Ethan de Groot, 18 Tyrell Lomax, 19 Tupou Wa’i, 20 Shannon Frizzell, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Richie Mounga, 23 Quinn Tupia
kickoff: Saturday 5.05 pm
